2023 World Rugby Rankings Predictions: 8-10 September

The 2023 Rugby World Cup kicks off with Ireland ranked in top spot on the World Rugby Rankings, but only […]

The 2023 Rugby World Cup kicks off with Ireland ranked in top spot on the World Rugby Rankings, but only by a whisker. Pooled with defending champions and second ranked, South Africa, Andy Farrell’s charges have a mere 0.74 point head start going into the opening weekend.

One thing we know for sure is in terms of rankings changes is that Ireland will start off the weekend worse than they started it. That’s all down to the complicated nature of crunching these numbers, but you can insert your own pun about luck of the Irish over here.

They open their campaign against Romania on Saturday while the Springboks have to wait until Sunday to get the party started against Scotland.

But before any of that, somebody has to open the tournament first. France, ranked third, will do the honours as hosts, welcoming fourth-ranked, yes fourth, New Zealand when the whole thing kicks off on Friday.

There’s all that and more the look forward to when the 2023 Rugby World Cup gets going. And if ranking movements are your thing, you’re in for a treat. Below you’ll find the permutations of what can and can’t happen depending on this weekends RWC results.

2023 Rugby World Cup: Rankings predictions for 8-10 September

Rankings are calculated using a points exchange system. Sides take points off each other based on the match result. Whatever one side gains, the other loses. The relative strength of each team and the margin of victory (15 points or less / more than 15 points), and an allowance for home advantage are also taken into account.

During the Rugby World Cup, exchanges are doubled to emphasises the importance of the event. All other full international matches are treated the same. Any match that is not a full international between two World Rugby full member unions does not count towards the rankings, e.g. the British and Irish Lions Test against Japan.

With Ireland unable to boost their rating with a victory against Romania due to the 27.26-point differential between the teams, they could be replaced at the top of the rankings by South Africa, New Zealand or France this weekend.

South Africa stand to gain a maximum of 0.88 points by beating Scotland by more than 15 points, a result which would take them to number one unless New Zealand win by the same margin against France on Friday.

In that scenario, the All Blacks would jump from fourth to first with a rating of 93.01 points. They have not been ranked number once since November 2021.

For hosts France to move back to the top for only the second time in history, Les Bleus need to beat New Zealand and hope Ireland and South Africa fail to win their Pool B matches against Romania and Scotland respectively.

Les Bleus cannot pick up enough rating points to move to number one if Ireland or South Africa are victorious.

It is possible for Scotland to climb to second if they beat the Springboks by more than 15 points, Ireland lose, and the match between France and New Zealand ends in a draw.

An historic high of fourth will be achieved if both Scotland and New Zealand win by smaller margins. A France win by more than 15 points would also see Scotland climb to fourth in victory.

New Zealand will equal their lowest-ever rating of fifth if they lose to France by more than 15 points and Scotland win.

Argentina must beat England by more than 15 points in Marseille to climb above a beaten Scotland into fifth place.

Having reached an all-time high of seventh with victory over England in their final RWC 2023 warm-up match, Fiji can better that this weekend. A win over Wales will be enough to move them up to sixth if England v Argentina ends in a draw.

Another permutation that will send Fiji up to sixth is if they win by more than 15 points and England edge Argentina by a lesser margin.

 England can gain a maximum of three places with a win but that is dependent on a big scoreline in their favour against Los Pumas and a number of other results going their way.

Australia can also gain three places with a win by more than 15 points but that, too, would be dependent on other results across the opening weekend.

Georgia can enter the top 10 for the first time since the rankings were introduced in October 2003 if they beat Australia in their RWC 2023 opener.

Australia, who are already at their current lowest ranking of ninth, are in danger of falling out of the top 10 altogether if they suffer a sixth straight defeat in Eddie Jones’ second spell in charge.

A defeat for Wales could send them tumbling out of the top 10 for the first time.

Japan are unable to improve their rating with victory over Rugby World Cup debutants Chile due to the 12.80-point difference between the teams, meaning they will remain in 14th in victory unless Italy slip up against Namibia.

However, if the Brave Blossoms lose they will slip below Tonga and also Portugal if the margin is more than 15 points.

Chile can enter the top 20 for the first time if they beat Japan, depending on the margin of victory and the outcome of Italy v Namibia.

Romania and Namibia will be rewarded with an improved position if they pull off shock results against Six Nations sides Ireland and Italy.

The best Namibia can hope for with a first-ever Rugby World Cup victory is a climb of four places and a new high –surpassing their previous best of 19th.

Romania’s return to the Rugby World Cup stage could –if they can cause one of the biggest upsets in the tournament’s history –see them climb as many as five places.

FRIDAY, 8 SEPTEMBER, 2003

FRANCE (3) 89.22 V NEW ZEALAND (4) 89.06

France win by 15 points or less – France 90.59, New Zealand 87.69 France win by more than 15 points – France 91.27, New Zealand 87.01 Draw – France 88.59, New Zealand 89.69

New Zealand win by 15 points or less – France 86.59, New Zealand 91.69

New Zealand win by more than 15 points – France 85.27, New Zealand 93.01

SATURDAY, 9 SEPTEMBER, 2003

ITALY (13) 75.63 V NAMIBIA (21) 61.61

Italy win by 15 points or less – Italy 75.63, Namibia 61.61(no change) Italy win by more than 15 points – Italy 75.63, Namibia 61.61(no change) Draw – Italy 73.63, Namibia 63.61

Namibia win by 15 points or less – Italy 71.63,Namibia 65.61

Namibia win by more than 15 points – Italy 69.63, Namibia 67.61

IRELAND (1) 91.82 V ROMANIA (19) 64.56

Ireland win by 15 points or less – Ireland 91.82, Romania 64.56 (no change) Ireland win by more than 15 points – Ireland 91.82, Romania 64.56 (no change) Draw – Ireland 89.82, Romania 66.56

Romania win by 15 points or less – Ireland 87.82, Romania 68.56

AUSTRALIA (9) 79.87 V GEORGIA (11) 76.23

Australia win by 15 points or less – Australia 81.14, Georgia 74.96 Australia win by more than 15 points – Australia 81.78, Georgia 74.32 Draw – Australia 79.14, Georgia 76.96

Georgia win by 15 points or less – Australia 77.14, Georgia 78.96 Georgia win by more than 15 points – Australia 75.78, Georgia 80.32

ENGLAND (8) 79.95 V ARGENTINA (6) 80.86

England win by 15 points or less – England 82.13, Argentina 78.68 England win by more than 15 points – England 83.22, Argentina 77.59 Draw – England 80.13, Argentina 80.68

Argentina win by 15 points or less – England 78.12, Argentina 82.68

Argentina win by more than 15 points – England 77.22, Argentina 83.59

SUNDAY, 10 SEPTEMBER, 2003

JAPAN (14) 73.29 V CHILE (22) 60.49

Japan win by 15 points or less – Japan 73.29, Chile 60.49 (no change) Japan win by more than 15 points – Japan 73.29, Chile 60.49 (no change) Draw – Japan 71.29, Chile 62.49

Chile win by 15 points or less – Japan 69.29, Chile 64.49

Chile win by more than 15 points – Japan 67.29, Chile 66.49

SOUTH AFRICA (2) 91.08 V SCOTLAND (5) 84.01

South Africa win by 15 points or less – South Africa 91.67, Scotland 83.43 South Africa win by more than 15 points – South Africa 91.96, Scotland 83.13 Draw – South Africa 89.67, Scotland 85.43

Scotland win by 15 points or less – South Africa 87.67, Scotland 87.43 Scotland win by more than 15 points – South Africa 85.96, Scotland 89.13

WALES (10) 78.26 V FIJI (7) 80.28

Wales win by 15 points or less – Wales 80.66, Fiji 77.88 Wales win by more than 15 points – Wales 81.87, Fiji 76.68 Draw – Wales 78.66, Fiji 79.88

Fiji win by 15 points or less – Wales 76.66, Fiji 81.88

Fiji win by more than 15 points – Wales 75.87, Fiji 82.68

Rankings predictions provided by World Rugby. Additional reporting from ETM.