Euro 2020 SF predictions and probable starting XI: Italy vs Spain

Italy and Spain go up against each other at the penultimate hurdle of Euro 2020 on Tuesday, as the semi-finals kick off at Wembley Stadium.

The pair meet for a heavy duty fixture in London for a place in Sunday’s final, also in the English capital.

It spells a repeat of the 2012 final, in which the Italians were thrashed by a Spanish side that sealed back-to-back European Championships either side of their triumph at the 2010 World Cup.

And they both had to fight hard to secure their respective spots in the last four alongside England and Denmark.

Italy were pushed all the way by world number one side Belgium in their quarter-final, despite going two goals ahead in the first half in Munich thanks to Nicolo Barella and Lorenzo Insigne.

Serie A star Romelu Lukaku pulled one back for the Belgians, but the Azzurri held out through a second half that somehow remained goalless.

It means Roberto Mancini’s men have won an imposing 13 matches on the spin.

Their opponents have clicked through the gears, too, despite a sluggish start to the group stage.

Luis Enrique’s side became the first in Euros history to score five goals in successive games en route to their quarter-final with Switzerland.

But the Swiss had no intention of continuing the trend, recovering from Denis Zakaria’s early own goal to take the last eight clash to penalties in St Petersburg.

A calamitous shootout saw La Roja through, though, as they took another step closer to reclaiming their dominance of a decade ago.

Pablo Sarabia is unlikely to feature after picking up an injury in Russia, which could see Ferran Torres return to Enrique’s starting line up.

Alvaro Morata looks set to continue his idiosyncratic tournament up front, with the form of Gerard Moreno not mustering enough of a threat to challenge him.

Leonardo Spinazzola became Italy’s latest casualty against Belgium, with his Achilles injury likely paving the way for Emerson to slot in at left back.

Lorenzo Pellegrini also misses out, while Alessandro Florenzi remains doubtful for the men in blue.

Whiz kid Federico Chiesa looks set to start at the sharp end, as his promising competition continues.

Euro 2020 semi-final prediction: Italy vs Spain

Prediction methodology explained: The expected win percentage is based off publicly available odds. For example, if a team’s odds are 2.30, the expected chance of winning is 43%. If the odds are 1.62 the expected chance of winning is 62% and so on. These are accurate at the time of writing, but are subject to change. Where there is no value listed, the odds were not available at the time of writing.

Probable Italy Starting XI: Gianluigi Donnarumma, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Leonardo Bonucci, Giorgio Chiellini, Emerson, Marco Verratti, Jorginho, Nicolo Barella, Federico Chiesa, Ciro Immobile, Lorenzo Insigne.

Probable Spain Starting XI: Unai Simon, Cesar Azpilicueta, Aymeric Laporte, Pau Torres, Jordi Alba, Koke, Sergio Busquets, Pedri, Ferran Torres, Alvaro Morata, Dani Olmo.