South Africa head to the final frontier under coach Rassie Erasmus on Saturday, as they do battle with Ireland in the Autumn rugby international series at the Aviva Stadium.
The back-to-back Rugby World Cup champions have yet to win in Dublin under the charge of Erasmus.
And both nations are in strong form coming into this one, after the Springboks yet again overcame a red card to see off Italy, while the Irish took sorry Australia to the cleaners.
The Boks battled their way to a 32-14 win against the Azzurri, having come through 32-17 in Paris against France after also being reduced to 14 men.
Ireland piled on the misery for struggling Australia, coming through with a record 46-19 win having earlier seen off Japan 41-10.
It’s a pair of results that have gone some way to making up for the disappointment of their opening 13-26 loss to New Zealand’s All Blacks in Chicago.
RG Snyman will bring up a half century of caps in green and gold when he steps of the bench, with Ruan Nortje earning a start in the locks.
Canan Moodie shifts out to the wing for the South Africans, who also welcome back Kwagga Smith to their replacements bench.
Ireland coach Andy Farrell makes four changes from last week’s Aussie demolition, welcoming Josh van der Flier and Garry Ringrose back from injury.
Andrew Porter and Bundee Aki are also both restored to the starting team for the Dublin duel.
Ireland Starting XV: 15 Mack Hansen, 14 Tommy O’Brien, 13 Garry Ringrose, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 James Lowe, 10 Sam Prendergast, 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 8 Caelan Doris (captain), 7 Josh van der Flier, 6 Ryan Baird, 5 Tadhg Beirne, 4 James Ryan, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Dan Sheehan, 1 Andrew Porter.
Replacements: 16 Rónan Kelleher, 17 Paddy McCarthy, 18 Finlay Bealham, 19 Cian Prendergast, 20 Jack Conan, 21 Craig Casey, 22 Jack Crowley, 23 Tom Farrell.
South Africa Starting XV: 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Canan Moodie, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Cheslin Kolbe, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Cobus Reinach, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi, 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Thomas du Toit, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Boan Venter.
Replacements: 16 Johan Grobbelaar, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Wilco Louw, 19 RG Snyman, 20 Kwagga Smith, 21 Andre Esterhuizen, 22 Grant Williams, 23 Manie Libbok.
Kick off time
That’s at the perfectly reasonable time of 19.40 SAST
Head-to-Head Stats: Ireland vs South Africa
| Statistic | South Africa | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| Total Tests Played | 30 | |
| Wins | 19 (63.3%) | 10 |
| Draws | 1 | |
| Points For | 581 | 457 |
| Tries Scored | 75 | 42 |
| First Meeting | 24 Nov 1906 (Balmoral Showgrounds) | |
| Most Recent Meeting | 13 Jul 2024 (Durban, South Africa 25–24 Ireland) | |
Head-to-Head Overview (Last 5 Meetings)
| Date | Competition | Result | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2024 | Internationals | Ireland 24 – 25 South Africa | South Africa |
| Jul 2024 | Internationals | Ireland 27 – 20 South Africa | Ireland |
| Sep 2023 | Rugby World Cup | Ireland 13 – 8 South Africa | Ireland |
| Nov 2022 | Internationals | Ireland 19 – 16 South Africa | Ireland |
| Nov 2017 | Internationals | Ireland 38 – 3 South Africa | Ireland |
Recent Form (Last 5 Games)
| Team | Results (last 5) | Wins | Losses | Tries Scored | Points Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ireland | 46-19, 41-10, 13-26, 7-106, 5-34 | 4 | 1 | 33 | +126 |
| South Africa | 14-32, 17-32, 61-7, 27-29, 67-30 | 5 | 0 | 30 | +173 |
Form streak: South Africa have won all of their last 5, Ireland 4 of 5.
Ranking Permutations
World Rugby Rankings: South Africa 1st (93.06), Ireland 4th (88.85)
| Scenario | Ireland rating | South Africa rating | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ireland win by ≤15 | 89.97 | 91.94 | Gap narrows, SA stay No.1 |
| Ireland win by >15 | 90.53 | 91.38 | Gap narrows further, SA stay No.1 |
| Draw | 88.97 | 92.94 | Minimal movement, SA stay No.1 |
| South Africa win by ≤15 | 87.97 | 93.94 | SA extend lead at top |
| South Africa win by >15 | 87.53 | 94.38 | SA extend cushion to 6+ points |
Ireland vs South Africa – By the numbers
History lesson (short version)
South Africa lead the rivalry overall – 19 wins out of 30, a tidy 63% win rate. Ireland? Just 10 wins, but here’s the kicker: they’ve taken 4 of the last 5. The Boks last won in Dublin back in 2012, which feels like ancient history in rugby terms.
Fun stats
- Points scored: South Africa 581, Ireland 457 – the Boks usually bring the bigger hammer.
- Tries: South Africa 75 vs Ireland 42 – more damage done historically by the men in green and gold.
- RG Snyman hits 50 caps. Kolbe and Reinach are still hanging around at 49, waiting for entry to the club.
- Total Bok caps in the starting XV: 876. That’s a lot of mileage – some of these guys have played more Tests than you’ve had bubble baths.
Form check
- Ireland: 4 wins from their last 5, including a demolition job on Australia. They’re humming.
- South Africa: 6 wins on the bounce. They’re not just humming, they’re blasting out of the boot with their boombox and vuvuzela for the chorus harmonies.
Rankings reality check
- South Africa are No.1 and can’t be knocked off this weekend.
- Ireland can close the gap if they win, but even a 15‑point thumping only nudges them closer – they don’t leapfrog.
- If the Boks win big, they stretch their lead to more than six points. That’s basically rugby Everest.
Prediction (with a wink)
- If you’re Irish, you’ll say “we’ve got their number, Dublin is ours.”
- If you’re South African, you’ll say “history, form, and a pack that eats nails for breakfast.”
The truth? Ireland might sneak it by a handful if everything clicks. But the smart money says the Boks grind it out – probably while down to 14 men again, because apparently that’s their new party trick.