RWC 2023: World Rugby Rankings Predictions for Round Four

New Zealand stand on the brink of very unlikely history.

While the All Blacks are probably secure in their current fourth, a loss to Italy by more than 15 points would spell catastrophe.

Such an outcome would not only eliminate them from the Rugby World Cup 2023 quarter-finals, but could drop them down to eight spot. Having never been ranked lower than fifth, it is only the gulf between Scotland and Romania that prevents the potential landslide happening with a lower margin defeat.

Scotland face Romania and they cannot significantly improve their rating, given the vast 14-place and 18.87-point difference separating them from their opponents.

Here are the other permutations for the World Rugby Rankings ahead of round four of the 2023 Rugby World Cup.

Current World Rugby Rankings

RANK	TEAM	RATING
1	Ireland	93.79
2	France	90.59
3	South Africa	89.70
4	New Zealand	87.69
5	Scotland	83.43
6	England	83.24
7	Wales	83.17
8	Fiji	80.66
9	Argentina	79.31
10	Australia	76.50
11	Italy	75.93
12	Samoa	74.47
13	Japan	73.27
14	Georgia	73.18
15	Tonga	70.29
16	Portugal	69.75
17	Uruguay	66.33
18	USA	66.22
19	Romania	64.56
20	Spain	64.05
21	Namibia	61.61
22	Chile	60.49

Rankings predictions at a glance

Team	Potential Outcome	Ranking Implication
New Zealand	Loss by more than 15 points to Italy	Drop to as low as 8th
All Blacks (New Zealand)	Historic rank	Never ranked lower than 5th
Italy	Victory against New Zealand	Rise to 7th
Italy	Draw against New Zealand	Rise to 10th
Australia	Post Italy-New Zealand draw	Drop out of the top 10

• New Zealand cannot fall from fourth place unless they lose to Italy by more than 15 points, which would drop them as low as eighth.
• Scotland’s ranking won’t improve significantly by beating Romania due to the rating difference.
• A victory for Italy against New Zealand would secure their first men’s Rugby World Cup quarter-final appearance and potentially lift them to seventh. A draw would move Italy to 10th.
• Australia could drop outside the top 10 depending on their match results and those of other teams.
• Samoa could move above Italy in the rankings with a win against Japan, but they can’t climb higher unless other teams face unexpected defeats.
• Japan could gain a higher ranking with a big win over Samoa.
• Portugal could reach 15th place with a second draw and a South Africa win over Tonga.
• Georgia could reach 11th place with a win over Fiji, depending on other results.
• Fiji can’t improve beyond eighth place unless Scotland loses to Romania.
• Argentina won’t significantly improve their rating by beating Chile but can gain a place if Fiji loses to Georgia.
• Namibia could drop to 23rd place with a loss by more than 15 points to Uruguay.
• Uruguay can’t improve beyond 17th place, even with a big win over Namibia.

Rugby World Cup 2023: Rankings scenarios by fixture

Uruguay vs Namibia

Uruguay’s current ranking: 17th (66.63 points)
Namibia’s current ranking: 21st (61.61 points)

Additional tables to follow…