Six Nations: Round Five predictions and teams for Saturday 16 March 2024

It all comes down to a deciding final round in the 2024 Guinness Six Nations Rugby Championship on Saturday, with the title up for grabs in a thrilling climax.

Ireland remain favourites to seal back-to-back titles but will have to recover from a dramatic loss last weekend to see off the challenge of Scotland in Dublin.

Waiting to pounce are England, who must go to Lyon, beat France well and hope for the best to snatch the crown.

And the day begins with a battle to avoid the wooden spoon in Cardiff, as Italy go to Wales off the back of a long-awaited Six Nations win last weekend.

*All kick off times Central African Time (GMT +2)

Wales vs Italy – Kick Off 16.15

A massive day of Guinness Six Nations Rugby Championship action kicks off in Cardiff on Saturday, with the basement battle between Wales and Italy.

It’s a contrast of emotions coming into the wooden spoon decider, too, with the Azzurri finally snaffling that much-needed win against Scotland in Rome a week ago.

They’ve been consistently closer than in any tournament in recent memory this time around.

Denied by the post for a last-gasp victory over France, they had already pushed England close in the opening round of action, before sliding to a routine defeat away to Ireland.

The story has unfolded to give the Italians a real sense of optimism, whereas their hosts have rather felt the opposite effect.

Promising efforts from a new crop of hopefuls saw them go close at home to Scotland and away to England in the early stages of this year’s competition.

But they’ve slipped off in the second half of the event, with tensions starting to mount for veteran coach Warren Gatland and his young charges.

And another veteran is on his way out, as George North plays his last international before retirement, taking the place of Joe Roberts at outside centre after missing out against France, while Nick Tompkins returns alongside him in the midfield.

Dillon Lewis bolsters the front row, as Alex Mann earns a start on the flank.

Influential Ange Capuozzo is ruled out of the final round with a broken finger for the Italians, with Lorenzo Pani stepping into his boots at full back.

Wales Starting XV: 15 Cameron Winnett, 14 Josh Adams, 13 George North, 12 Nick Tompkins, 11 Rio Dyer, 10 Sam Costelow. 9 Tomos Williams, 8 Aaron Wainwright, 7 Tommy Reffell, 6 Alex Mann, 5 Adam Beard, 4 Dafydd Jenkins (captain), 3 Dillon Lewis, 2 Elliot Dee, 1 Gareth Thomas.

Replacements: 16 Evan Lloyd, 17 Kemsley Mathias, 18 Harri O’Connor, 19 Will Rowlands, 20 Mackenzie Martin, 21 Kieran Hardy, 22 Ioan Lloyd, 23 Mason Grady.

Italy Starting XV: 15 Lorenzo Pani, 14 Louis Lynagh, 13 Juan Ignacio Brex, 12 Tommaso Menoncello, 11 Monty Ioane, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 9 Stephen Varney, 8 Lorenzo Cannone, 7 Michele Lamaro (captain), 6 Sebastian Negri, 5 Federico Ruzza, 4 Niccolo Cannone, 3 Simone Ferrari, 2 Giacomo Nicotera, 1 Danilo Fischetti.

Replacements: 16 Gianmarco Lucchesi, 17 Mirco Spagnolo, 18 Giosue Zilocchi, 19 Andrea Zambonin, 20 Ross Vintcent, 21 Manuel Zuliani, 22 Martin Page-Relo, 23 Leonardo Marin.

Ireland vs Scotland – Kick Off 18.45

The drama of the final round of the 2024 Guinness Six Nations Rugby Championship moves on to Dublin on Saturday evening, as Ireland attempt to seal the title for the second year running.

Andy Farrell’s men were on course for a consecutive Grand Slam in the Northern Hemisphere tournament.

But they didn’t reckon on England producing an incredible performance surrounded by a baying Twickenham crowd, with Marcus Smith’s drop goal taking the competition to the final weekend with the last kick of an enthralling encounter.

The destination of the title, however, remains in Irish hands.

An opening night victory in France set the tone, before wins over Italy and Wales set them up for another tilt at topping the standings as they regenerate following the retirement of legend Johnny Sexton.

It’s been yet another up-and-down effort from their visitors, who have a fourth-straight Calcutta Cup success over England and a dramatic win over Wales in Cardiff to their credit.

Controversial defeat to France at Murrayfield took the wind out of their sales somewhat as the TMO intervened to their detriment, but it was a shock loss in Italy last weekend that put the final nail in their Six Nations coffin for another year.

The Irish bench is the only source of change for the hosts, who stick with an identical starting line up in their bid for glory.

Harry Byrne and Garry Ringrose are back among the replacements as rookie Ciaran Frawley is ruled out after suffering a concussion.

Stafford McDowall is a fresh face in the Scottish centres, making his Six Nations debut and only a second start for his country across the Irish Sea.

Ben White returns from a weekend off to resume scrum-half duties ahead of George Horne.

Ireland Starting XV: 15 Hugo Keenan, 14 Calvin Nash, 13 Robbie Henshaw, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 James Lowe, 10 Jack Crowley, 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 8 Caelan Doris, 7 Josh van der Flier, 6 Peter O’Mahony (captain), 5 Tadhg Beirne, 4 Joe McCarthy, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Dan Sheehan, 1 Andrew Porter.

Replacements: 16 Ronan Kelleher, 17 Cian Healy, 18 Finlay Bealham, 19 Ryan Baird, 20 Jack Conan, 21 Conor Murray, 22 Harry Byrne, 23 Garry Ringrose.

Scotland Starting XV: 15 Blair Kinghorn, 14 Kyle Steyn, 13 Huw Jones, 12 Stafford McDowall, 11 Duhan van der Merwe, 10 Finn Russell (co-captain), 9 Ben White, 8 Jack Dempsey, 7 Rory Darge (co-captain), 6 Andy Christie, 5 Scott Cummings, 4 Grant Gilchrist, 3 Zander Fagerson, 2 George Turner, 1 Pierre Schoeman.

Replacements: 16 Ewan Ashman, 17 Rory Sutherland, 18 Elliot Millar-Mills, 19 Sam Skinner, 20 Matt Fagerson, 21 George Horne, 22 Cameron Redpath, 23 Kyle Rowe.

France vs England – Kick Off 22.00

France and England once again bring the curtain down on a dramatic final round of action on Saturday in the 2024 Guinness Six Nations Rugby Championship.

The pair will know by kick off in Lyon whether the visitors stand a chance of pulling off one of the biggest heists in the competition’s storied history.

That owes everything to the Red Rose’s superhuman performance at Twickenham last weekend, as Marcus Smith knocked a nerveless drop goal through the posts to seal victory over Grand Slam candidates Ireland with the last kick of the match.

It’ll likely take another effort of the same magnitude against Les Bleus, who are still scrambling to shake the hangover from their home World Cup last Autumn.

Even their handsome-looking victory over winless Wales in Cardiff a week ago owed much to a late blowout in the score line, while their other victory came only after a controversial TMO intervention at the death away to Scotland.

Opening night defeat on home turf against rampant Ireland was possibly a clearer indicator of the French state of mind at present.

And so does relying on the width of the upright to hold Italy to a dramatic draw in round three.

Coach Fabien Galthie names an unchanged French side for their final outing.

That means Leo Barre, Nicolas Depoortere, Emmanuel Meafou and Georges-Henri Colombe are all retained for a second start following their debuts in Cardiff.

Immanuel Feyi-Waboso misses out through concussion for the Red Rose, leading to a recall for the experienced Elliot Daly on the wing.

It’s an otherwise unchanged line up for coach Steve Borthwick, although there is the eye-catching comeback of Manu Tuilagi among the replacements.

France Starting XV: 15 Leo Barre, 14 Damian Penaud, 13 Gael Fickou, 12 Nicolas Depoortere, 11 Louis Bielle-Biarrey, 10 Thomas Ramos, 9 Nolann Le Garrec, 8 Gregory Alldritt (captain), 7 Charles Ollivon, 6 Francois Cros, 5 Emmanuel Meafou, 4 Thibaud Flament, 3 Uini Atonio, 2 Julien Marchand, 1 Cyril Baille.

Replacements: 16 Peato Mauvaka, 17 Sebastien Taofifenua, 18 Georges-Henri Colombe, 19 Romain Taofifenua, 20 Alexandre Roumat, 21 Paul Boudehent, 22 Maxime Lucu, 23 Yoram Moefana.

England Starting XV: 15 George Furbank, 14 Tommy Freeman, 13 Henry Slade, 12 Ollie Lawrence, 11 Elliot Daly, 10 George Ford, 9 Alex Mitchell, 8 Ben Earl, 7 Sam Underhill, 6 Ollie Chessum, 5 George Martin, 4 Maro Itoje, 3 Dan Cole, 2 Jamie George (captain), 1 Ellis Genge.

Replacements: 16 Theo Dan, 17 Joe Marler, 18 Will Stuart, 19 Ethan Roots, 20 Alex Dombrandt, 21 Danny Care, 22 Marcus Smith, 23 Manu Tuilagi.

FixtureCountryPercentagePredicted Score
Ireland vs ScotlandIreland92%29
Scotland8%14
Wales vs ItalyWales85%34
Italy12%19
France vs EnglandFrance82%29
England17%16