Six Nations: Round One predictions and teams for 2 – 3 February 2024

It’s time for the big kick off in the 2024 Guinness Six Nations Rugby Championship and what better way to begin than with a battle between last year’s top two?

France meet Ireland in a Friday night showdown in Marseille, as the visitors launch their bid for back-to-back Grand Slams.

England face a steady start when they go to wooden spoon regulars Italy on Saturday, followed by the Cardiff clash between Wales and Scotland.

France vs Ireland – Friday 2 February

It’s a blockbuster start to the 2024 Guinness Six Nations Rugby Championship in Paris, as France and Ireland renew hostilities under the lights in Marseille.

The men in green came out on top of the meeting between the pair in Dublin a year ago, winning 32-19 on their way to a famous Grand Slam.

It was the only loss of the campaign for Les Bleus, who marched to a runners-up finish.

But both hit the buffers at the 2023 Rugby World Cup, exiting at the quarter-final stage with expectations high for one of the pair to lift the William Webb Ellis trophy.

The French were toppled by a single point by eventual champions South Africa, while the Irish fell agonizingly short against New Zealand’s All Blacks.

Antoine Dupont is a massive miss for Les Bleus, as he skips the Six Nations in advance of taking part in the rugby sevens at the 2024 Paris Olympic Games later this year.

Maxime Lucu takes his place for the opener, partnering Matthieu Jalibert in the half-backs.

Gregory Alldritt takes on the captaincy from the back of the scrum, while coach Fabien Galthie has broken with French tradition to go with a 6-2 split on a forwards-heavy bench.

It’s a new Irish era, meanwhile, as veteran Peter O’Mahoney takes the captaincy following the retirement of legend Johnny Sexton.

Jack Crowley is the man to step into those sizeable fly-half shoes, making his Six Nations bow, as Bundee Aki and Robbie Henshaw provide ample experience in the backline.

There’s plenty of consistency in the pack, too, as coach Andy Farrell opts for a starting front row of Andrew Porter, Dan Sheehan and Tadhg Furlong.

France Starting XV: 15 Thomas Ramos, 14 Damian Penaud, 13 Gael Fickou, 12 Jonathan Danty, 11 Yoram Moefana, 10 Matthieu Jalibert, 9 Maxime Lucu, 8 Gregory Alldritt (captain), 7 Charles Ollivon, 6 Francois Cros, 5 Paul Willemse, 4 Paul Gabrillagues, 3 Uini Atonio, 2 Peato Mauvaka, 1 Cyril Baille.

Replacements: 16 Julien Marchand, 17 Reda Wardi, 18 Dorian Aldegheri, 19 Cameron Woki, 20 Romain Taofifenua, 21 Paul Boudehent, 22 Nolann Le Garrec, 23 Louis Bielle-Biarrey.

Ireland Starting XV: 15 Hugo Keenan, 14 Calvin Nash, 13 Robbie Henshaw, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 James Lowe, 10 Jack Crowley, 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 8 Caelan Doris, 7 Josh van der Flier, 6 Peter O’Mahony (captain), 5 Tadhg Beirne, 4 Joe McCarthy, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Dan Sheehan, 1 Andrew Porter.

Replacements: 16 Ronan Kelleher, 17 Cian Healy, 18 Finlay Bealham, 19 James Ryan, 20 Ryan Baird, 21 Jack Conan, 22 Conor Murray, 23 Ciaran Frawley.

Italy vs England – Saturday 3 February

England kick off their 2024 Guinness Six Nations Rugby Championship campaign with a trip to play Italy.

The Red Rose suffered three defeats out of five last time around to finish fourth in the Northern Hemisphere competition, as new coach Steve Borthwick attempted to patch up the fallout from the sacking of controversial Eddie Jones.

A lacklustre effort was little hint of what was to come at the 2023 Rugby World Cup, though.

Semi-final defeat by a single point to eventual champions South Africa wasn’t on many betting slips before the tournament in France, as Borthwick’s men found a way to grind through an admittedly kind half of the draw.

No such joy for Italy, who followed up five Six Nations defeats from five and yet another wooden spoon with a miserable effort on the biggest stage of all.

Monstrous defeats to New Zealand and the hosts blew wins over minnows Uruguay and Namibia out of the water, as the Azzurri tumbled out in the pool stage.

Jamie George takes on the England captaincy, following the bombshell news of Owen Farrell’s switch to play in the French Top 14, packing down in the front row alongside fellow veteran Joe Marler.

At the other end of the experience scale there are a pair of debuts for the Red Rose.

Fraser Dingwall is in at inside centre for the first time, while Ethan Roots makes his bow at blindside flank.

Charismatic new coach Gonzalo Quesada sets out to avoid a ninth consecutive last-placed finish with a focus on evolution rather than revolution.

Tommaso Allan pilots the Azzurri from full-back while Gabirisi brothers Alessandro and Paolo look to strike a blood harmony in the half-backs.

Italy Starting XV: 15 Tommaso Allan, 14 Ange Capuozzo, 13 Juan Ignacio Brex, 12 Tommaso Menoncello, 11 Monty Ioane, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 9 Alessandro Garbisi, 8 Lorenzo Cannone, 7 Michele Lamaro (captain), 6 Sebastian Negri, 5 Federico Ruzza, 4 Niccolo Cannone, 3 Pietro Ceccarelli, 2 Gianmarco Lucchesi, 1 Danilo Fischetti.

Replacements: 16 Giacomo Nicotera, 17 Mirco Spagnolo, 18 Giosue Zilocchi, 19 Andrea Zambonin, 20 Edoardo Iachizzi, 21 Manuel Zuliani, 22 Stephen Varney, 23 Lorenzo Pani.

England Starting XV: 15 Freddie Steward, 14 Tommy Freeman, 13 Henry Slade, 12 Fraser Dingwall, 11 Elliot Daly, 10 George Ford, 9 Alex Mitchell, 8 Ben Earl, 7 Sam Underhill, 6 Ethan Roots, 5 Ollie Chessum, 4 Maro Itoje, 3 Will Stuart, 2 Jamie George (captain), 1 Joe Marler.

Replacements: 16 Theo Dan, 17 Ellis Genge, 18 Dan Cole, 19 Alex Coles, 20 Chandler Cunningham-South, 21 Danny Care, 22 Fin Smith, 23 Immanuel Feyi-Waboso.

Wales vs Scotland – Saturday 3 February

Two nations meet with a point to prove on Saturday, as the first round of fixtures at the 2024 Guinness Six Nations Rugby Championship concludes with the battle between Wales and Scotland.

Cardiff’s Principality Stadium is the iconic venue as the duo both look to improve on what was at times a frustrating 2023.

The hosts at lest hit an upward curve following a Six Nations competition that couldn’t have gone much worse, leaving them in fifth place with just a sole success over Italy.

But they perked up markedly despite losing key players in the build up to the 2023 Rugby World Cup.

Warren Gatland’s side took advantage of a kind draw to reach the quarter-finals before somewhat reverting to type in a disappointing loss to Argentina.

Scotland didn’t make it out of their World Cup pool but performed creditably in defining losses to Ireland and eventual champions South Africa.

Their Six Nations effort started on a high with a famous win over auld enemy England in their own Twickenham back yard.

But a title charge failed to materialize, despite further victories against Wales and Italy.

The Six Nations opener comes just too soon for Scottish co-captain Rory Darge, with experienced Blair Kinghorn also missing for at least the first two rounds of action.

Mercurial Finn Russell is in charge at fly-half, while South Africa-born pair Duhan van der Merwe and Kyle Steyn operate on either wing.

Wales step into the unknown after losing the likes of Liam Williams to Japan, George North to injury and Louis Rees-Zammit from the sport entirely as he heads to the NFL for an American football stint.

Cameron Winnett is entrusted with the full-back jersey while a callow front row is headed up by Corey Domachowski, Leon Brown and hooker Ryan Elias.

Wales Starting XV: 15 Cameron Winnett, 14 Josh Adams, 13 Owen Watkin, 12 Nick Tompkins, 11 Rio Dyer, 10 Sam Costelow, 9 Gareth Davies, 8 Aaron Wainwright, 7 Tommy Reffell, 6 James Botham, 5 Adam Beard, 4 Dafydd Jenkins (captain), 3 Leon Brown, 2 Ryan Elias, 1 Corey Domachowski.

Replacements: 16 Elliot Dee, 17 Kemsley Mathias, 18 Keiron Assiratti, 19 Teddy Williams, 20 Alex Mann, 21 Tomos Williams, 22 Ioan Lloyd, 23 Mason Grady.

Scotland Starting XV: 15 Kyle Rowe, 14 Kyle Steyn, 13 Huw Jones, 12 Sione Tuipulotu, 11 Duhan van der Merwe, 10 Finn Russell (captain), 9 Ben White, 8 Matt Fagerson, 7 Jamie Ritchie, 6 Luke Crosbie, 5 Scott Cummings, 4 Richie Gray, 3 Zander Fagerson, 2 George Turner, 1 Pierre Schoeman.

Replacements: 16 Ewan Ashman, 17 Alec Hepburn, 18 Elliot Millar-Mills, 19 Sam Skinner, 20 Jack Dempsey, 21 George Horne, 22 Ben Healy, 23 Cameron Redpath.

Team 1Win % 1Win % 2Team 2Predicted margin
France53.4%46.6%Ireland1
Italy17.5%82.5%England-13
Wales49.6%50.4%Scotland-1