Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry kicks off in Johannesburg this weekend, with the long-anticipated first Test match of four between South Africa and New Zealand on Saturday at Ellis Park.
The duo, for whom the 2026 Rugby Championship has been canned, will move on to Cape Town and then back up to Soweto’s vast FNB Stadium, before completing their bruising quartet in Baltimore, USA, as a tee up to next year’s Rugby World Cup in the States.
While Southern Hemisphere rivals Australia and Argentina are left in the shadows, there’s no denying the world game’s two biggest hitters have caught the attention.
International Rugby: South Africa vs New Zealand – kick off 17.10 SAST
South Africa and New Zealand finally put an end to the waiting, as they tear into their self-styled Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry at Ellis Park on Saturday.
Set to blow the Rugby Championship out of the water every four years, the showdown is set up to rival the sporting – and, let’s be honest, financial – success of the British and Irish Lions tours.
And few could argue a full series isn’t justified, with the pair separated by a single point as Siya Kolisi and his Springboks lifted the William Webb Ellis trophy for a second successive time in Paris three years ago.
The world’s two leading nations collide three times on African soil before heading Stateside for a Baltimore finale, with a year to go until the 2027 Rugby World Cup in the USA.
You can bet Bok coach Rassie Erasmus is well ahead with his plans for a global hat-trick across the Atlantic Ocean, as he prepares to pit his wits against opposite number Dave Rennie, who is less than a handful of games into the job.
It’s been a controlled, generous build up for the All Blacks, who have seen off the provincial challenges of the Stormers, Sharks and Bulls over the last fortnight – the latter two with at least 50 points on the board.
Captain Kolisi is absent for the series opener, with Erasmus holding the skipper back in favour of Paul de Villiers on the blindside as Pieter-Steph du Toit takes the helm.
Damian de Allende enjoys a huge landmark, meanwhile, as he bring up a century of Test caps in green and gold, in a Bok run-on side that retains just Eben Etzebeth and Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu from their 17-10 win over Argentina in Buenos Aires.
Kiwi captain Ardie Savea makes his first appearance of the tour, as do Will Jordan and Cam Roigard.
Coach Rennie is also boosted by the return from injury of Damian McKenzie, who will pull the strings from full back in a team packed with big game experience.
South Africa Starting XV: 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Grant Williams, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit (captain), 6 Paul de Villiers, 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Ox Nche.
Replacements: 16 Jan-Hendrik Wessels, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Zachary Porthen, 19 Cobus Wiese, 20 Andre Esterhuizen, 21 Marco van Staden, 22 Cobus Reinach, 23 Manie Libbok.
New Zealand Starting XV: 15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Quinn Tupaea, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Josh Moorby, 10 Ruben Love, 9 Cam Roigard, 8 Ardie Savea (captain), 7 Luke Jacobson, 6 Tupou Vaa’i, 5 Fabian Holland, 4 Josh Lord, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Ethan de Groot.
Replacements: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 George Bower, 18 Fletcher Newell, 19 Anton Segner, 20 Peter Lakai, 21 Kyle Preston, 22 Anton Lienert-Brown, 23 Leroy Carter.
South Africa vs New Zeland: Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry first Test prediction
South Africa to beat New Zealand by 15 points or less
Predicted score: South Africa 27-20 New Zealand
South Africa go into the first test of the Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry series as favourites, holding a 1.68-point world ranking advantage (93.96 to 92.28) built on a 12-match winning streak and a +81 points difference from this year’s Nations Championship. The Springboks also have the historical edge at this specific venue (10 wins to New Zealand’s six at Ellis Park) and with this weekend’s referee, Matthew Carley, who has taken charge of the fixture three times previously without New Zealand winning once.
Recent head-to-head form reinforces the case for the hosts: South Africa have won five of the last six meetings, including a record 43-10 victory in Wellington last year – the heaviest defeat in All Blacks test history.
New Zealand, however, arrive with the better underlying attacking numbers from their last completed series, topping the charts for carries, metres made, defenders beaten and clean breaks, and go into the match under new head coach Dave Rennie, who remains unbeaten since taking charge in March. A narrow margin – rather than a rout – looks the more likely outcome, with the All Blacks capable of testing the Springboks for large periods.
A South Africa win by 15 points or less would extend their ranking advantage to 3.34 points ahead of next weekend’s second test in Cape Town.
| Stat | South Africa | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| World Ranking | 1st (93.96 pts) | 2nd (92.28 pts) |
| Last 10 Tests | W10 D0 L0 | W8 D0 L2 |
| Current Win Streak | 12 tests | — |
| Head-to-Head (all-time) | SA 43 – NZ 63 – Draw 4 (Played 110) | |
| Last 6 Meetings | South Africa won 5 of 6 | |
| Record at Ellis Park | SA 10 – NZ 6 | |
| Biggest Recent Win | South Africa 43-10 (Wellington, 2025) | |
| Referee Record (Carley) | SA won all 3 previous meetings he’s reffed | |
| Head Coach | Rassie Erasmus (27-4 in 2nd spell) | Dave Rennie (unbeaten since March) |
| Predicted Result | South Africa 27-20 New Zealand | |