Expected chances vs usual PSL results for Orlando Pirates and other teams this weekend

This weekend’s PSL action is a somewhat truncated offering with not one of the three title-chasing teams in action. Kaizer Chiefs, Mamelodi Sundowns and Wits all have cup commitments, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t important fixtures to look forward to.

Orlando Pirates are one of the sides in action this weekend who will have a point to prove. Bucs claim a fifth consecutive win on their travels to Chippa United at the Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium on Saturday. Josef Zinnbauer’s men played out a hard-fought 1-0 win over AmaZulu in their last game and now face a team who was recently beaten 3-0 by SuperSport United.

That fixture is squeezed into the 18:00 kick off on Saturday after, Golden Arrows attempt to rediscover their winning form when they host the in-form SuperSport United at the Sugar Ray Xulu Stadium.

Highlands Park and Baroka FC will wrap up Saturday’s action.

On Sunday, two afternoon fixtures feature four teams with much at stake. Beleaguered Black Leopards face a Stellenbosch FC side which has seemingly found its footing in the country’s topflight while AmaZulu and Polokwane slog it out to avoid the drop zone.

As the PSL has proven time and time again, though, the impossible is possible.

So, what does this weekend have in store for the teams in terms of expected chance of winning vs the usual rate at which they win their fixtures? Let’s take a look.

Prediction methodology explained

The expected win percentage is based off publicly available odds. For example, if a team’s odds are 2.30, the expected chance of winning is 43%. If the odds are 1.62 the expected chance of winning is 62% and so on.

Maritzburg United vs Cape Town City

Maritzburg United vs Cape Town City: Expected vs usual winning percentage

Maritzburg United look like firm favourites here. They have a 45% expected chance of winning and usually win 67% under these circumstances. Cape Town City have been given a 31% chance and usually win 31% of their games with these figures.

Golden Arrows vs SuperSport United

Golden Arrows vs SuperSport United: Expected vs usual winning percentage

SuperSport United have the slightest advantage in terms of their expected chance of winning with 45% vs Golden Arrows? 33%. But. Arrows win 36% of fixtures at these odds and SuperSport 38%, so things could get interesting.

Chippa United vs Orlando Pirates

Chippa United vs Orlando Pirates: Expected vs usual winning percentage

Orlando Pirates are very much favourites in the outright expected chance of winning stakes. The Bucs have a 50% expected chance of winning and Chippa a meagre 34%. But things aren?t so clear cut when it comes to the usual wins with these odds. Pirates usually win only 34% of games at these and Chippa win 39% of their fixtures with these chances.

Highlands Park vs Baroka

Highlands Park vs Baroka: : Expected vs usual winning percentage

Not too much to separate these two sides. Highlands Park edge the expected change of victory with 42%. They usually win 36% of such fixtures. Baroka have been given a 36% expected chance of winning and have a 30% win rate with these numbers.

 AmaZulu vs Polokwane City

AmaZulu vs Polokwane City: Expected vs usual winning percentage

Usuthu’s expected chance of winning is 42%  and their visitors? 36%. But here’s the thing: AmaZulu only win 24% when they have these odds while Rise and Shine claiming victory in 35% of their fixtures.

Black Leopards vs Stellenbosch

Black Leopards vs Stellenbosch: Expected vs usual winning percentage

Revived Stellenbosch FC have a 42% expected chance of winning  and Leopards 35%. Lidoda Duvha do well as underdogs, though, winning 51% of their games with these odds, while Stellies claim victory 45% of the time.

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