The inaugural Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry series comes to a head this weekend, as South Africa and New Zealand meet for the fourth and final time in a Stateside set piece showdown on Saturday.
Baltimore is the Eastern Seaboard setting as the pair renew hostilities following three engaging Test matches on African soil.
And there’s life in the contest yet, as the All Blacks know victory at the M&T Bank Stadium would see the spoils shared.
International Rugby: South Africa vs New Zealand – kick off 17.10 SAST
It all comes down to the fourth and final Test in the first edition of the Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry series, as the Springboks and All Blacks bring the curtain down on an enthralling month of action on Saturday in the USA.
The Southern Hemisphere giants meet for a bruising fourth week in a row, not least with this week’s leap across the Atlantic Ocean for their date at the M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore.
Game four is an obvious taster course for next year’s Rugby World Cup in the States, but there’s plenty for fans around the globe to get stuck into in the meantime.
The Boks hold a 2-1 series lead thanks to back-to-back wins in their own back yard.
It’s a commendable turnaround for Rassie Erasmus and his charges, whose error-strewn opening effort saw them go down 16-33 at Johannesburg’s Ellis Park three weeks ago.
A gritty 33-26 success at the DHL Stadium in Cape Town put them back on an even footing, before last weekend’s 29-24 Soweto success had a packed FNB Stadium crowd on the edge of their seats.
Injury to Cheslin Kolbe sees Damian Willemse introduced at full back, while Morne van den Berg earns a start at scrum half ahead of the vastly experienced Cobus Reinach.
And that’s it for coach Erasmus, who sees no reason to stray from the tried and trused as they go all out to seal a 3-1 series win.
It’s a more mixed picture for his opposite number, with Dave Rennie making a number of alterations to his injury-hit tour party.
Ardie Savea, Luke Jacobson and Quinn Tupaea are all on the casualty list, joined by Fabian Holland who has been struck down by illness.
The remarkable turmoil sees Fletcher Newell, Patrick Tuipulotu, Ethan Blackadder, Richie Mo’unga and Anton Lienert-Brown all make their first starts of the series at the final opportunity.
A pair of welcome returns sees forward duo Ethan de Groot and Josh Lord return following their concussions collected during the first Test in Johannesburg.
Hooker Codie Taylor is also restored to the starting side, as his captains the All Blacks once again for their win-or-bust encounter.
South Africa Starting XV: 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Ethan Hooker, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Morne van den Berg, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (captain), 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Ox Nche.
Replacements: 16 Deon Fourie, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Thomas du Toit, 19 Lood de Jager, 20 Andre Esterhuizen, 21 Cameron Hanekom, 22 Cobus Reinach, 23 Manie Libbok.
New Zealand Starting XV: 15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Anton Lienert-Brown, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Josh Moorby, 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 Cam Roigard, 8 Peter Lakai, 7 Ethan Blackadder, 6 Tupou Vaa’i, 5 Sam Darry, 4 Patrick Tuipulotu, 3 Fletcher Newell, 2 Codie Taylor (captain), 1 Ethan de Groot.
Replacements: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 Xavier Numia, 18 Tyrel Lomax, 19 Josh Lord, 20 Wallace Sititi, 21 Kyle Preston, 22 Rieko Ioane, 23 Beauden Barrett.
South Africa vs New Zealand: Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry — Series Decider Prediction
South Africa to beat New Zealand by 15 points or less
Predicted score: South Africa 24-19 New Zealand
South Africa arrive in Baltimore 2-1 up in the series and holding a 2.43-point ranking advantage (94.33 to 91.90), built on back-to-back wins in Cape Town and Soweto after New Zealand’s opening 33-16 statement in Johannesburg. Damian Willemse’s return at full-back offsets the loss of top points-scorer Cheslin Kolbe (broken jaw), and the Kolisi–Du Toit–Wiese loose trio extending their world-record 19th cap together adds settled experience for a series that has swung on fine margins (5, 7 and 17-point results).
New Zealand’s case rests on urgency rather than form: they’ve lost back-to-back tests for the first time in two years and are without captain Ardie Savea (dislocated shoulder), Quinn Tupaea and Luke Jacobson, forcing a new-look back row under Dave Rennie. Referee Karl Dickson’s record offers a rare point in New Zealand’s favour — they’re unbeaten in his four tests, while his only previous South Africa-New Zealand appointment (Eden Park, 2025) produced South Africa’s sole loss under him. Expect New Zealand to compete hard for the full 80, but a South Africa win by 15 or fewer looks the more probable outcome, which would stretch their ranking lead to 3.94 points ahead of the Rugby Championship.
South Africa v New Zealand — By the Numbers
| Stat | South Africa | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| World Ranking | 1st (94.33 pts) | 2nd (91.90 pts) |
| Series Score | 2-1 lead | — |
| Last 10 Tests | W9 D0 L1 | W7 D0 L3 |
| Head-to-Head (all-time) | SA 45 – NZ 64 – Draw 4 (Played 113) | |
| This Series (3 tests) | Points: SA 78, tries: SA 8 | Points: NZ 83, tries: NZ 13 |
| Referee Record (Dickson) | 3 wins in 4 tests | Unbeaten in 4 tests |
| Head Coach | Rassie Erasmus (29-5 in 2nd spell, 85.3%) | Dave Rennie (4-2 in 6 tests) |
| Predicted Result | South Africa 24-19 New Zealand |
What time does the Springboks vs New Zealand kick off in the USA?
Kickoff is 17:00 local (Baltimore/Maryland time), which is 22:00 BST.
For South Africa, that’s 23:00 SAST.